The 2005 analysis pooled 19 trials and 135,967 participants at doses from 16.5 to 2000 IU/day. Overall there was no mortality effect — but in 9 of the 11 high-dose trials (≥400 IU/day) risk was significantly raised, with a pooled risk difference of 39 additional deaths per 10,000 people. The authors concluded high-dosage supplementation was “clearly unjustified.”
A later analysis pooled 57 trials, 246,371 participants and 29,295 deaths, and found a risk ratio of 1.00 (95% CI 0.98–1.02) with no dose-response relationship at all — concluding no effect up to 5,500 IU/day.
Both are large. Both are published in serious venues. A third paper exists specifically to examine why different meta-analytic approaches to the same literature produce inconsistent answers. This claim does not have a settled answer, and any source that gives you one is overstating.
The working
(9 × 0.25) + (5 × 0.35) + (2 × 0.25) + (9 × 0.15) = 5.9
Consistency scores 2 because this is not uncertainty, it is direct disagreement between two competent syntheses. The band is deliberately wide enough to span three verdict tiers.
- MetaMiller ER 3rd, Pastor-Barriuso R, Dalal D, et al. High-dosage vitamin E supplementation may increase all-cause mortality Ann Intern Med 2005;142(1):37-46 · 19 trials, 135,967 participants
- MetaAbner EL, et al. Vitamin E and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis 57 trials, 246,371 subjects, 29,295 deaths · RR 1.00 (0.98–1.02) · PMID 21235492
- MetaThe questionable association of vitamin E supplementation and mortality — inconsistent results of different meta-analytic approaches PMID 19267994 · on why the two disagree